The 2009 NSW Government Sea Level Rise Policy required that Council consider, as a minimum, 40cm sea level rise by 2050 and 90cm rise by 2100. This policy was repealed by the NSW Government in 2012 and coastal councils were encouraged to adopt their own sea level rise projections.
In response Council, in partnership with Eurobodalla Council, engaged expert consultants to develop a South Coast Regional Sea Level Rise Policy and Planning Framework. This document was not adopted by Council. However part of it, together with submissions from the NIPCC (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change) and a local civil engineer, were used by Councillors to adopt the following sea level rise projections on 10 February 2015,
100mm for 2030
230mm for 2050 and
360mm for 2100.
Referring to table 10 on page 55 of the South Coast Regional Sea Level Rise Policy and Planning Framework, these numbers correspond to the sea level rise projections associated with RCP6.0 (mid-range greenhouse gas emissions scenario). The adopted 2030 and 2050 projections have a 15% chance (high probability line) of being exceeded while the 2100 projection of 360mm has a 85% chance of being exceeded (low probability line).
A simplified, visual summary and explanation of the sea level rise projections can be viewed here.